Energy Policy and Sustainable Development in Uzbekistan: From Economic Growth to The Introduction of Small-Scale Nuclear Generation

Abstract

Uzbekistan’s economic growth has been heavily dependent on its energy sector, which is characterized by high energy intensity and limited diversification, primarily reliant on natural gas and coal. Recent government reforms have prioritized renewable energy, efficiency improvement, and decarbonization, while simultaneously initiating the  development of nuclear energy through small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of the national decarbonization strategy and energy independence agenda. Despite strong policy direction, there remains limited techno-economic analysis of SMRs’ feasibility and their integrated impact on Uzbekistan’s energy balance, environmental goals, and economic resilience. This study assesses the economic, technical, and environmental feasibility of constructing a 330 MW small modular nuclear power plant in Jizzakh region, analyzing profitability scenarios, energy security benefits, and emission reductions. Findings indicate that SMR deployment will provide stable base-load electricity of approximately 2.66 million MWh annually, reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 112,000 tons over 30 years, and enhance regional energy security. The calculated internal rate of return is 12%, with a payback period of 8 years under a hybrid tariff scenario, demonstrating investment viability. This article integrates energy policy analysis with detailed financial modelling of SMRs, emphasizing their environmental co-benefits and contribution to Uzbekistan’s sustainable development strategy. The results support policy recommendations for integrating nuclear energy into the national energy mix, highlighting the importance of strategic financing models, safety standards adherence, and regional infrastructure adaptation to ensure effective implementation.